What next ?

It has been more than a month since I last wrote. There are two reasons for taking some time to write another article: Firstly, the political activities have been moving in such a random way that it was hard to lay the foot down on one point. Secondly, I have always written articles whenever I had the appetite to do so.

Before I start, I would like to extend my sincerest condolences to the victims of Northern Bypass incident which occurred yesterday. It was another tragedy due to the excessive amount of corruption by the authorities in charge of developing the project. Even though by now 4 officials related to the project have been suspended, it will always remain a doubt in many that they will be punished severely. One of the other victims of the tragedy is also President Pervez Musharraf, who has nothing going right for him at the moment according to the people's perception. But, it may be the story is different altogether.

Yesterday, the negotiations broke off between the government and PPP representatives. However, one can not say for sure that the deal is over. It will be normal for many to differ with my opinions, but my views are based solely on perception of the characters involved in the story. Ever since Musharraf came to power, his involvement with PPP has been significant. First, he believed that Makhdoom Amin Fahim can break PPP into the party which is free to manoeuvre without the most powerful woman at the helm of affairs. However, that was not the case. Mr. Fahim decided to stay loyal to the party by not agreeing to become the PM of the country instead of BB. Then most of the years since then passed in healthy rivalry of the PPP and the government, until a few months back. The party which was by far the most vocal against the military dictatorship, has now flipped the coin to test its luck. But, to my view both Benazir and Musharraf know the answer. There is a high possibility that their deal is a success.

If President Musharraf wants to be re-elected from the current assemblies then he needs to have the support of the current assemblies. Therefore, he needs the backing of the ruling PML-Q to secure the next term. If Musharraf states that he has made a deal with BB then that would mean that PPP would form the next government. This outcome will never be acceptable to the Chowdhary Brothers Inc. who have always had a tussle with the BB's party. And, Musharraf cannot just clearly say that he wants to 'use' the ruling party for his personal interests. Therefore, I believe that everything is going to plan if any. Both the leaders have a sharp mind in their own extent. They would know that for the deal to be successful they should keep their workers away from the real scenario. Once, Musharraf gets re-elected he can always say that for the best interest of Pakistan he resorted to 'national reconciliation' and therefore has struck a deal with the PPP to ensure 'fair and free' elections in Pakistan. To my knowledge, BB has hired the top PR company of US to take care of the foreign lobbying. This PR company has campaigned for Reagan, and both Bush I and II for their campaigns. This exercise has reportedly cost around US $600,000 for Benazir Bhutto.

After the re-election of the President, he will be faced with the next challenge which is Nawaz Sharif's expected arrival at the capital on September 10. It seems like to me that at the end Nawaz Sharif may not come to Pakistan, and it will only be Shahbaz Sharif facing the music. However, in either case the President would not want to face the wrath of BB being against him as PPP played a pivotal role in causing trouble in the government circles. Even the exercise of Chowdhary Aitzaz Ahsan meeting with Nawaz Sharif was, to me, a planned process by the PPP leader. She is one person, in my view, who knows how to play her cards well. The cases against her party have already been dropped. Therefore, it is in Musharraf's interests to secure a deal with PPP so that he can have an extension of his political lifeline.

On the other hand, if this does not turn out to be the case then my belief is that we will be facing a martial law. But, it will not be Musharraf heading the government this time. It will be another person from the army. The reasons for this are many. First, if someone other than Musharraf takes over the army rule in Pakistan then no one can blame Musharraf for breaking his promises. In addition, the army would not want to disrepute itself by allowing Musharraf to hang on to the uniform any longer due to his decline in popularity, in recent months. This decline would cause damage to our armed forces; which without any doubt should be seen with utmost respect by our citizens. Therefore, these are the two options which I believe the President has at the moment.

In my view, we are witnessing the last days of the Chowdhary Brothers Inc. in power in either case; elections or martial law. However, things may change over time for Musharraf if Nawaz's return causes a greater than expected impact on the political atmosphere in the country. The coming days will indeed be an interesting time for the people of Pakistan; who are once again deprived from the whole 'democratic' process. Long live Pakistan.