What next ?

It has been more than a month since I last wrote. There are two reasons for taking some time to write another article: Firstly, the political activities have been moving in such a random way that it was hard to lay the foot down on one point. Secondly, I have always written articles whenever I had the appetite to do so.

Before I start, I would like to extend my sincerest condolences to the victims of Northern Bypass incident which occurred yesterday. It was another tragedy due to the excessive amount of corruption by the authorities in charge of developing the project. Even though by now 4 officials related to the project have been suspended, it will always remain a doubt in many that they will be punished severely. One of the other victims of the tragedy is also President Pervez Musharraf, who has nothing going right for him at the moment according to the people's perception. But, it may be the story is different altogether.

Yesterday, the negotiations broke off between the government and PPP representatives. However, one can not say for sure that the deal is over. It will be normal for many to differ with my opinions, but my views are based solely on perception of the characters involved in the story. Ever since Musharraf came to power, his involvement with PPP has been significant. First, he believed that Makhdoom Amin Fahim can break PPP into the party which is free to manoeuvre without the most powerful woman at the helm of affairs. However, that was not the case. Mr. Fahim decided to stay loyal to the party by not agreeing to become the PM of the country instead of BB. Then most of the years since then passed in healthy rivalry of the PPP and the government, until a few months back. The party which was by far the most vocal against the military dictatorship, has now flipped the coin to test its luck. But, to my view both Benazir and Musharraf know the answer. There is a high possibility that their deal is a success.

If President Musharraf wants to be re-elected from the current assemblies then he needs to have the support of the current assemblies. Therefore, he needs the backing of the ruling PML-Q to secure the next term. If Musharraf states that he has made a deal with BB then that would mean that PPP would form the next government. This outcome will never be acceptable to the Chowdhary Brothers Inc. who have always had a tussle with the BB's party. And, Musharraf cannot just clearly say that he wants to 'use' the ruling party for his personal interests. Therefore, I believe that everything is going to plan if any. Both the leaders have a sharp mind in their own extent. They would know that for the deal to be successful they should keep their workers away from the real scenario. Once, Musharraf gets re-elected he can always say that for the best interest of Pakistan he resorted to 'national reconciliation' and therefore has struck a deal with the PPP to ensure 'fair and free' elections in Pakistan. To my knowledge, BB has hired the top PR company of US to take care of the foreign lobbying. This PR company has campaigned for Reagan, and both Bush I and II for their campaigns. This exercise has reportedly cost around US $600,000 for Benazir Bhutto.

After the re-election of the President, he will be faced with the next challenge which is Nawaz Sharif's expected arrival at the capital on September 10. It seems like to me that at the end Nawaz Sharif may not come to Pakistan, and it will only be Shahbaz Sharif facing the music. However, in either case the President would not want to face the wrath of BB being against him as PPP played a pivotal role in causing trouble in the government circles. Even the exercise of Chowdhary Aitzaz Ahsan meeting with Nawaz Sharif was, to me, a planned process by the PPP leader. She is one person, in my view, who knows how to play her cards well. The cases against her party have already been dropped. Therefore, it is in Musharraf's interests to secure a deal with PPP so that he can have an extension of his political lifeline.

On the other hand, if this does not turn out to be the case then my belief is that we will be facing a martial law. But, it will not be Musharraf heading the government this time. It will be another person from the army. The reasons for this are many. First, if someone other than Musharraf takes over the army rule in Pakistan then no one can blame Musharraf for breaking his promises. In addition, the army would not want to disrepute itself by allowing Musharraf to hang on to the uniform any longer due to his decline in popularity, in recent months. This decline would cause damage to our armed forces; which without any doubt should be seen with utmost respect by our citizens. Therefore, these are the two options which I believe the President has at the moment.

In my view, we are witnessing the last days of the Chowdhary Brothers Inc. in power in either case; elections or martial law. However, things may change over time for Musharraf if Nawaz's return causes a greater than expected impact on the political atmosphere in the country. The coming days will indeed be an interesting time for the people of Pakistan; who are once again deprived from the whole 'democratic' process. Long live Pakistan.

The 'Lal Masjid'

After months of agitation, things picked up for both the 'Lal Masjid' and 'Maulana', or should I say 'Aunty' Abdul Hafiz. The pictures which show Abdul Hafiz leaving in a burqa were not only detrimental to the image of Pakistan, but also to the image of Muslims all across the world. Being a Pakistani, I believe that any Pakistani Muslim has been ashamed with the manner in which the 'Maulana' escaped the mosque. In addition, when he was stopped by the officials his 'sahaylees' (colleagues) requested not to check their 'Aunty' which was 'elderly and sick.' It is a shame for anyone who supports this cause of 'Lal Masjid' to have their leader being caught in a runaway attempt with 40 other ladies. As if, it was not enough that he was using the women and children as his shield for the last one week.

It is extraordinary to many that these fanatics inside the mosque were equipped with latest ammunition, for which the rangers posted at the location may be jealous. Well, to me this is not a surprise when it is known that our Minister for Religious Affairs, Ejaz Ul Haq bailed the 'Aunty' from jail during Musharraf's reign. Now that Chowdhary Shujaat Hussain has talked to the 'Aunty' in the last one hour, it seems that there is more to it than what meets the eye. I believe that the Chowdhary Brothers Inc. never intervene in anything related to a crisis, unless there is a personal interest for them. It is a known fact that during Nawaz Sharif's government, the 'Aunty' was involved in similar activities of gathering ammunition at the mosque for their so called 'Jihad.'

It is believed that the younger brother, Maulana Abdul Rashid Ghazi, is a less hardliner than his elder brother, Maulana Abdul Hafiz. However, he is leading the struggle now ever since his brother's departure from the 'Lal Masjid.' I believe that there is a hostage-like situation within the 'Lal Masjid' which prompted the Chowdhary to intervene. Maulana Abdul Rashid Ghazi has stated that his 'companions' will not accept the offer of the government to keep him and his mother under a house arrest. instead of keeping them in a jail. However, this deal would have worked both ways considering Maulana Abdul Aziz's half-hearted devotion to bringing Shariah law in Pakistan. I can say that with assurance because it is reported that Maulana Abdul Aziz was on the verge of bringing a coup when his elder brother decided to use the women and children as hostage before the operation. However, ever since the arrest of his elder brother things should have moved faster in the right direction. But, instead this same brother has decided to become a hardliner, even though his brother was planning an exit from the whole drama. After, the confirmation from various sources that foreign militants are also residing in the mosque it seems that there is more at stake. Ever since the proposal of the house arrest for the leader and his mother, things have started to become more black & white. The government has only offered softness to the top leadership, while not showing any concern about the other militants inside. If the leader at the moment, Maulana Abdul Rashid, decides to abandon he may face a serious threat of being killed himself. The foreigners residing in the mosque would know that they will be dealt with harshness once the Maulana and his mother are given a safe passage.

But, this is where the main question arises. In a country where countless have been made scapegoats to make a successful story, why not Maulana Abdul Rashid. Why so much hesitation to carry out a full-fledge operation? The paramilitary forces, rangers, and the police have been deployed since the last 3 days equipped with immense firepower. The reason lies somwhere else. As stated earlier, Chowdhary Shujaat does not involve himself in any crisis unless he has got a personal interest. Considering the bailout of the Maulana by Ejaz Ul Haq during this government, it seems like both the Chowdhary and Zia Ul Haq's son are on the same side of the coin. In addition, it is evident now that it is not Maulana Abdul Rashid calling the shots. But, the other militants who are more fanatic than the Maulana, as they have come from a foreign land for this cause. If the government want they can easily order a commando operation to secure the few militants in the mosque. Now, we know that there are children in the mosque which have been taken hostage in this hour. But, the efforts are moving towards the securing of Maulana Abdul Rashid who is the 'official' leader at the moment. The Maulana has stated very clearly that his companions do not accept a solution in which he is given a safe passage, along his mother. But, why need to care about the Maulana so much in a country where many wrongs have been done to make a right? There is an interest of some influential elements in the ruling PML-Q which are taking this issue in another direction, when on the surface they state that they are only doing this to secure the innocent children in the mosque. Once again, this high level of sympathy for the children is rare considering the fate of the storm-affected people of Balochistan. No concern of such depth was shown in that matter where children of similar age, with higher numbers have been marooned over the last few weeks.

To conclude, I can say with a lot of conviction that there is a link involved between the Maulana brothers and the Chowdhary Brothers Inc. It may not be clear at this point in time due to various reasons. In addition, Musharraf has handled the situation in an impressive manner with regards to yesterday's events with hundreds of people surrendering. However, the President is also using the 'hot n cold' tactic to manage the other political issues, such as of Chief Justice and the trouble in other parts of the country. But, while he is doing that for his own benefit as well he needs to be aware of the actions of the Chowdhary Brothers Inc. which are once again using their political cards to gain some sort of mileage. Let us hope that, indeed, the least number of innocent people are killed in this drama. And, the culprits are brought to justice.